Keeneland, Race 5 – Wednesday, October 18, 2023
By 2YO EdgeMan
KEE5:101823 – Seven Furlongs on the dirt. Fifteen colts have been put forward by their connections, but only twelve will go postward. We’ve got an even split of experience vs firsters as six are newbies, four have been racing once and two have two runs under their belt. This is an interesting field – let’s break five of them down…
#5 – Blue Line (10/1) – Asmussen is only 4 for 34 (11.8%) with two-year-old FTSers at Keeneland in the fall over the prior five seasons (2018 thru 2022). This colt is by Nyquist and is the first foal of racing age from his dam who was 4 for 14 on the track, with earnings of $260K. He sold nicely at auction as a yearling for $175K (18/71). To prep for today’s debut, Steve has only worked this guy seven times – his first was in May at Keeneland, then he had a big gap until he was out again in late August at Churchill for five breezes, then back to KEE for one last spin over this oval. None of his times have been eye catching, and only one of his breezes has been five furlongs. Tyler is scheduled to be his pilot for the day.
#6 – Justifreak (10/1) – Another firster, this colt, as his name implies, is by Justify. His dam – by Matty G – only competed four times, but did win half of her starts, including her first out at Calder in June of her 2YO campaign (74 Equibase Speed Fig), but only banked $26,000. This guy didn’t meet his reserve price of $70,000 when he went through Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Sales last October. His conditioner – Eddie Kenneally – is 1 for 5 over the past five years in the fall at Keeneland with 2YO First-Time Starters, but that sole winner was a 21/1 longshot last year. He’s shown some speed in the mornings, having gone 46.8 seconds twice over four poles in the last six weeks – both times from the gate here at Keeneland. In fact, his full complement of morning works has come at KEE – nine total.
#7 – So Smooth (6/1) – Chad Brown will put a saddle on this colt for the first time in the afternoon and he comes to us by way of his daddy, Curlin. Mama won four times from the 16 races that she competed and pulled down $212K in prize money. He sold for $200K as a yearling last year (51/60). Like the two above, this dude is also making his debut performance tomorrow. Chad has had this colt working down in Louisville under the Twin Spires – he’s been out eight times, with his first being back on 8/20/23. His times are not overly fast, but two of his last three have covered 5/8th of a mile.
#9 – It’smyluckytime (8/1) – Pletcher trains this Not This Time colt for St. Elias Stable and Starlight Racing who bought him as a yearling for the hefty price of $450K (6/76). He’s mom’s first foal of racing age and she only ran once and failed to win. He’ll be making his first start today for TAP and he’s only got eight works into him and all of those have been at Churchill. His best was probably his next to last when he worked from the gate in 48.4 seconds, going a half mile (10/42).
#11 – Air of Defiance (3/1) – The Morning Line favorite is a pricey Quality Road colt who has started one time previous to today. On that occasion – 8/25/23 at Saratoga – he had the misfortunately of drawing into the same race as Fierceness. He was no match for that beast, but did run second of eight, 11+ lengths behind. Air of Defiance broke poorly in that six furlong event that was run on the dirt (actually, the sealed mud), but he quickly moved up down the backstretch. Then, he fell back significantly, before making a nice run in the stretch. The third place finisher that day – Billal – has since come back to win by 3 ¼ lengths on 10/8/23 at Belmont at the Big A as the 3/4 favorite, posting a tidy 89 EBSF. Today’s colt sold for $400K as a yearling at Keeneland last September (21/45). Conditioner Cox sent him down to Ellis Park for some additional work after his race and he was out three times there. His first breeze back was a bullet – on 9/23/23 he went a half mile in 48 seconds flat (1/58). His most recent practice was over today’s oval here at Keeneland when we traveled 5/8th of a mile in 1:00.4 (5/49).
Pick – #11 Air of Defiance – I’d very much like to find someone else to finger other than the M/L fav, but the most important thing is always to pick the best horse. One of the First-Time Starters analyzed above could certainly step forward and be very talented, but I like the fact that this fella has knocked heads once before and that was an odd, uneven race for him and it was on the off track. I don’t love the outside post that he’s drawn, but has a long enough run from the chute to overcome it. I do like the duo of Cox and Saez. Add to that, the fact that Quality Road is a first level sire and his dam was an excellent race mare. Lastly, his 9/23/23 breeze was impressive and it’s beneficial that he had a work over today’s strip on 10/7/23.
We’ve got two more fine two-year-old Maiden Special Weight affairs for the fillies on the docket tomorrow here at Keeneland, so please be on the look out for another one of our ‘Picks, Plays and Pontification’ piece. As always, stay safe my Edgie Stallwarts. Thank you for your readership and interest in the work we do (but very honestly, it doesn’t feel like work!).