2YO Maiden Special Weight ‘Picks, Plays and Pontification’ – Keeneland, 10/15/2023

October 14, 2023

Keeneland, Race 6 – Sunday, October 15, 2023

By 2YO EdgeMan

KEE6:101523 – Seven Furlongs on the dirt. As seems to be the case with most of these 2YO MSW races for fillies this meet, the maximum number of entries – 16 – was achieved (and likely surpassed). As you all know, four will have to now be listed as Also Eligibles and 12 will head to the post. Half of the field will be making their debut performance today, while four have started one time and two have been out on two occasions. It’s a well-matched field – let’s jump on this…

Mark Casse. (Benoit Photo)

#2 – Final Draft (8/1) – Constitution is the stallion behind this filly who is by a Curlin mare that won only one race from the seven that she started and banked a meager $32,000. When this gal went through the sales ring as a yearling, she only brought $40,000, however, the price went up rather substantially when she sold as a two-year-old at OBS back in March – $150K was the winning bid (13/31). Mark Casse sends this gal out for her debut performance today and he’s chosen Tyler as his man in the saddle. To get her prepped for her first run, Mark has pumped 15 works into her, starting at his training center in early April, moving her here to Keeneland, then on to Ellis Park before one last breeze here at Keeneland. Interestingly, she’s never worked more than a half mile, but she has clicked off sub 48 second works at that distance five times, with her last being her fastest – 47.2 seconds (2/43). Casse is only 1 for 6 (16.7%) at Keeneland in the fall from 2018 thru 2022 with 2YO MSW FTSers.

Riley Mott. (Oaklawn Photo)

#3 – Grinning (6/1) – Riley Mott, who saddled an impressive first out winner here last week, will tighten the girth on this FTS filly by Bernardini who is owned and bred by Adele Dilschneider & Claiborne Farms. Mama was not a rockstar on the track – 1 for 6 and $42,000 – and this is her first foal of racing age. Mott’s given her a dozen works at Churchill’s Training Center and she’s produced five ‘small’ bullets (the highest number of workers at her distance on the respective days of her bullets at CDT was 11) – and three of them were in five panel efforts since mid-September.

Ron Moquett. (Coady Photography)

#5 – Ruby Queen (6/1) – Classic Empire is the sire of this filly who is conditioned by Ron Moquett. Her dam was 2 for 14 on track, bringing home $61,000 in purse money. She’s thrown two other foals of racing age – both are unraced (one is even unnamed). Similar to the #2 horse above, she sold for $40,000 as a yearling, but was able to ring the bell for $130K this past June as a 2YO at OBS (4/25). She’s raced once previously – back on 8/6/23, she ran six furlongs on the dirt at Saratoga. On that day, she broke fairly slowly and steadily worked her way up to run fourth, 5 ¼ lengths shy of the winner, Empire Island. Since that effort, Ron kept her in upstate NY for a half mile breeze and then shipped her to Louisville for another four-panel work at Churchill Downs. 

#7 – Shiloh’s Mistress (8/1) – This filly is a First-Time starter from the barn of Mike McCarthy and was a big seller for Spendthrift Farm’s dynamite debut sire – Vino Rosso, as she pulled down a winning bid of $235K as a yearling (9/128). Mama couldn’t find the Winner’s Circle in four tries but has produced a foal that went on to bank $403K on the track, with a record of 5 for 15. She started her work with two spins over the All-Weather surface of Turfway Park in July and has since completed nine more under the Twin Spires. Her works have not been overly fast, but she has put in two 5/8th mile moves in her last three morning outings.

Brad Cox. (MJC photo)

#8 – Sweet Sunshine (5/1) – Brad Cox is the conditioner of this filly making her debut as a homebred for Godolphin. Her dam, by Elusive Quality, only scored on the track twice from eight runs, but did earn $178K, while coming third in a Grade 1 event. This is her first foal of racing age. Today’s runner got the feel of Keeneland’s dirt, as she started her prep work her back in late May. In fact, in her second morning move, she went 36.6 seconds for three poles, earning a bullet (1/24). Brad then vanned her west, down I-64 to Churchill for 11 more spins – four at 5/8th of a mile (for a total of 15 works). Her fastest was her next to last – on 9/30 – when she went four panels in 48 seconds flat (12/107). Her breeze partner on that day was the stakes winning two-year old filly – Youalmosthadme. Her workout partner prior to that morning effort was with the first out winning 2YO filly – West Sunset.

D. Wayne Lukas. (Coady Photography)

#9 – Happy Talk (6/1) – Another firster, this one is sired by the late Arrogate and she’s out of a 17 YO Speightstown mare who was 2 for 16 on the track, with winnings of $104K. The one ‘claim to fame’ from those that she’s produced who went on to be a sire at WinStar Farm is Laoban. Interestingly, he only won one race is his nine-race career, but that was the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes at The Spa. Today’s filly hammered for $175K as a yearling. Her work tab started recently – in mid-August – up at Saratoga, where she put in four works prior to shipping down to Churchill Downs for five more. Six of her nine total works have been 5/8thmile efforts, with her one on 10/1/23 being zipped off in 58.6 seconds (1/17). On that day, trainer D. Wayne Lukas worked her in company with Seize the Grey – a fine 2YO colt by Arrogate who is already a winner and has finished third in the Skidmore Stakes at Saratoga. The Coach did not have a winner at this level at Keeneland’s Fall meet from 2018 thru 2022 – 0 for 6.

Mike Maker. (Coady Photography)

#11 – Lite It Up Louie (9/2) – The tepid Morning Line favorite is conditioned by Mike Maker and is sired by Midshipman. She sold conservatively as a yearling for $40,000 and then brought $70,000 as a 2YO back in May (7/17). Mama was 3 for 11 with prize money totaling $135K, including a win in the second outing of her 2YO season at Lone Star, flashing a fine 82 Equibase Speed Fig, but this victory was in a Maiden Claiming event. She’s competed in the afternoon one time previously – on that day she went six furlongs on the turf at Kentucky Downs. She broke fairly slow and traveled in the middle of the pack for much of the race before she moved up a bit to finish fourth of 12, four lengths behind the winnah. Luis Saez picks up the mount today.

Pick – #2 Final Draft – This is a difficult race to sort out. I can easily make a case for at least five or six of these fillies but know that I have to get it down to just one. I landed here because even though Casse only has had one score at this meet over the past five years at this level, he clearly is capable of having his babies ready to roll. I like that he’s handing the reins to Tyler. Constitution is fantastic and Curlin ain’t a bad Broodmare Sire either. True Nicks gives the mating a grade of ‘A’. Her last work, which was over today’s track, was excellent. I feel like some of the others may get over bet and this gal may go off at a very nice price that makes it worth taking a shot on her. This fine filly is still available in the Game of Silks.

Contributing Authors

The 2YO Edge Man, Past The Wire

The 2YO EdgeMan

The 2YO EdgeMan started following horse racing when his family moved to Louisville, KY when he was 9 years old.  The story goes that he...

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Hit the juvenile triple cause of ur horse, Hill Road, coupled with my top 2 picks! Thanks! $5,800. Came back in the last race with ur horse again, Iron Man Cal, at 29/1 + allmost hit again. Ran 2, 3, 4. THANKS 4 two great picks!

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