2YO Maiden Special Weight ‘Picks, Plays and Pontification’ – Keeneland, 10/14/2023

October 13, 2023

Keeneland, Race 6 – Saturday, October 14, 2023

By 2YO EdgeMan

KEE6:101423 – One mile and a 1/16th on the dirt.  Twelve males (eleven colts and one gelding) are entered and set to compete in this affair.  They all have experience – no First-Time Starters in this one.  Five have been out one time previously, five have done battle twice and two of these dudes have three races behind them.  

#2 – Dornoch (7/2) – This Danny Gargan trained Good Magic colt has a full brother who you know – Mage.  His dam was a fine runner, too, having pulled down four victories in 17 outings, good for $299K in winnings, including a score at third asking as a 2YO at Belmont, zipping off an excellent 87 Equibase Speed Figure.  Today’s colt did well in the auction ring as a yearling when he sold in the top 10% of his class from his dad in 2022, demanding $325K (7/81).  He’s been out in the afternoon twice – his first effort was a runner up finish at SAR on 7/29/23 to the good colt, Seize the Grey.  Most recently, he shipped to Monmouth Park for the $200K Sapling Stakes where he went off at odds of 3/2 and ran a big race, even taking the lead on the far turn, before getting run down by the dynamite Repole colt – Noted.  He earned an excellent 86 Equibase Speed Fig for that effort.  Since that race, Gargan shipped him back to Saratoga where he gave him four half mile breezes.  

#4 – Django (8/1) – Kenny McPeek is in charge of this colt who is sired by Medaglia d’Oro and is out of a mare who won four times in her 21 races, which earned her $159K.  She was also a first out winner when she scored at Ellis Park in August of her 2YO year with a 75 EBSF.  This dude is a homebred from Cypress Creek Equine and he’s raced three times prior to today.  He really moved up last out at Churchill when he made a big run around the last turn and down the lane, actually getting the lead, but Parchment Party did slip through on the rail, ultimately scoring by 1 ¼ lengths.  McPeek has only had time for one morning freshener at Keeneland since his last race.

#11 – Nuevo Empire (20/1) – This Calumet Farm homebred is conditioned by Robert Medina and is sired by Classic Empire.  His Tapit dam was 0 for 3 on the track and this is her only foal of racing age.  He’s raced one time – back on 9/22/23 at CD – when he went seven furlongs on the dirt.  After a slow start, he eventually got rolling and ended up finishing fourth, 3+ lengths behind.  Medina put him back to work after that run and he earned a bullet going four panels at the Thoroughbred Training Center in Lexington – 48.6 seconds (1/14).  

#12 – Dive Bomber (5/2) – The Morning Line fav is by the terrific First Crop Sire from Spendthrift Farm – Omaha Beach.  He was a $400K yearling pickup last fall (8/87), so he was also in the top 10% of his daddy’s class as a yearling in 2022.  Brad Cox has had him out in the afternoon to battle it out twice previously, both at Saratoga on their dirt oval – the first time he went six furlongs and then, most recently, he competed over seven panels.  Last out, he was bet down to odds of 8/5 and ran in the runner up spot the whole way around and eventually finished right there, in second, four lengths shy of General Partner.  He was rewarded with a nifty EBSF of 83.  Brad then shipped him to Ellis Park for three works – 4f, 4f and 5f – and recently vanned him over to Lexington for one five pole work on 10/7/23 here at Keeneland.  

Pick – #2 Dornoch – I really do think that this race comes down to two stand out colts.  However, as you sharp Edgies know, I always pick one horse – and only one (I don’t pick half the field like many others out there and don’t even try to sneak in two ‘picks’).  I ended with this guy because of the determination and grit that he showed in his last race – especially in light of the fact that it was against stakes company.  The victor that day was Noted – and he is the real deal.  In fact, he has since come back from that race with a second place showing (only losing by a nose) in the G2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes on the grass at Keeneland.  Additionally, it goes without saying that his full bro won the G1 Kentucky Derby this spring and his mom was a good race mare and pretty precocious, too.  He’ll get the services of Luis Saez in the saddle and he rode him in his debut performance, so he should know him a bit.  I’m jealous of House of Fred Top-10, as they are the lucky owners of this dude in the Game of Silks.  Good luck!

Contributing Authors

The 2YO Edge Man, Past The Wire

The 2YO EdgeMan

The 2YO EdgeMan started following horse racing when his family moved to Louisville, KY when he was 9 years old.  The story goes that he...

View The 2YO EdgeMan

Facebook