Churchill Downs, Race 1 – Saturday, September 23, 2023
By 2YO EdgeMan
CD1:092323 – One mile and 1/16th on the turf. 16 fillies (only space for 12 to start). One gal has already been out four times, one has competed on three occasions, one twice, four have run just once and we’ve got five first-time starters entered.
#4 – Ba Dee Yah (10/1) – The trainer of this filly – Tom Amoss – has not been overly successful in September at CD over the previous five years in these 2YO MSW events – he’s 1 for 18 (5.6%). His sire is Uncle Mo and his dam won three times on the track in her 24 efforts and ended with $182K in prize money. She’s foaled a colt who was a winner of $379K and 4 of 11 races, including a Grade 1 and his second ever start at Woodbine while a two-year-old, earning a big 94 Equibase Speed Fig. This filly was a success in the sales ring when she hammered for $485K as a yearling at last October’s Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Sale (13/95). She has competed one time, back on 8/13/23 up at Saratoga she did very little running at odds of 17.7/1. Since that day, she put in a half mile breeze at SAR and then came to Churchill for a warmup over five panels.
#7 – Without Cause (12/1) – The fantastic Spendthrift First-Crop Sire – Omaha Beach – brings this filly to you from a Tiznow mare that never found the Winner’s Circle in three tries. $180K was the ticket signed for today’s runner when she went through the KEE Sept Yearling Sale last fall (38/87). Mark Casse will be saddling her in the afternoon for her first ever event and he’s dropped some bombs in September at CD in these races over the past five years and has a strike rate of 20% (5 for 25). Mark started her at his training facility with two works in late June and early July before moving her to Churchill for nine more morning efforts. She’s been working well, but her last four pole move was probably her best. On 9/15/23 she worked with another Casse two-year-old filly (by Mendelssohn) named Crystal Symphony and they moved as a team and finished in 47.4 seconds (3/103).
#9 – Luz Divina (4/1) – This homebred filly is from a Brazilian mare who won the only race she entered and her sire is Palace Malice. Trainer Tim Hamm has only started two babies in these races in September at CD from 2018 thru 2022, but one of them won at odds of 10/1. Luz Divina will be making her second start today after having run in a 5 ½ furlong turf event at Saratoga in early September. On that day, she broke poorly and trailed the 10 horse field before making a big move, winding up only beaten by less than two lengths in third. Her tab does not show any works since that run.
#10 – Weighted Average (3/1) – Turf master – Chad Brown – is the man in charge of the prep work for this second time runner by English Channel. Similar to Tim Hamm, Chad is 1 for 2 at this level at Churchill in September from 2018 thru 2022. Her mama is by Kitten’s Joy, so she has grass running through her veins. Mom didn’t find much success as a race mare, however, never winning in eight attempts, but did bank $53,000 for her owners. On 8/13/23, this gal made her debut on the turf at Ellis Park going the same distance as today. In that affair, she was in no hurry early and trailed the leaders by nearly 10 lengths before finishing strong to land in the show slot, one length shy of the victor. After this effort, Brown shipped her south to Kentucky and he’s put in four half mile works under the Twin Spires. Her first over the track was done in 48 seconds flat (33/108), while her most recent three have all been between 48 and 49 seconds.
#11 – Moshine (12/1) – This homebred filly is another one by Uncle Mo, but this time her broodmare sire is Malibu Moon. Mom was huge on the track – $549K in purse money, a 4 for 9 record, a win at first asking at two at DMR with an incredible 100 EBSF and two Grade 1 scores at the age of two. She’s produced one other foal, but that 3YO Justify filly is unraced. Today will be Moshine’s debut, but conditioner Brendan Walsh has pumped a total of ten works into her. The first two were in July here at CD and her most recent eight were on the All-Weather strip at Turfway Park. Walsh has started 34 in these races during September at Churchill in the previous five years and has scored with only three of them (8.8%).
Pick – #11 Moshine – Although her work times have been moderate, I like the heavyweight ownership group of Bridlewood Farms and Magnier, Smith & Tabor. What really draws me to this filly is her dam. She clearly was a powerhouse on the track and, most importantly, was extremely precocious. Gotta be honest, the M/L odds of 12/1 looks awfully juicy, too.
