2YO Maiden Special Weight ‘Picks, Plays and Pontification’ – Churchill Downs, 05/02/2024

April 30, 2024

Churchill Downs, Race 3 – Thursday, May 2, 2024

By The 2YO EdgeMan

CD3:050224 – 4 1/2f on Dirt.  The fillies get an opportunity for the first time in 2024 at Churchill as a full field of 12 (plus two AEs) have passed through the entry box.  Mark Casse, Steve Asmussen, John A. Hancock, and Todd Pletcher are conditioner names that stand out.  On the sire side we see the likes of Classic Empire, Omaha Beach (Spendthrift Farm), West Coast, and the great Into Mischief (Spendthrift), along with four, strong debut sires McKinzie, Authentic (Spendthrift), Volatile, and Thousand Words (Spendthrift).  This looks like a fun one for what the locals call ‘Thurby.  Let’s peel the onion back on four of these fillies…

#4 – Minty (6/1) – The First-Crop Sire that I picked to lead the pack this year – McKinzie – sends out his first runner.  This filly is from a Talk is Money mare that won twice in 14 tries, banking only $32,000, but she did win at third asking as a two-year-old (in her third start at Charlestown in June).  She has thrown six other foals of racing age and two of them won in their 2YO campaign, however, both were MDN Claiming events.  Today’s runner initially sold for $130K last year as a ‘short yearling’ (47/120), before going through the ring again last September, hamming down for $165K (37/120).  Trainer Mark Casse has put this gal through her paces in the morning three times – the first at his training facility and then twice at CD.  The first time here she worked a ½ mile and then her most recent drill was on 4/18/24 when she earned a ‘small bullet’ by going three panels from the gate in 35.8 seconds (1/5).  Flavien Prat gets the opportunity to pilot this filly.

#6 – Miss Makenna (8/1) – This filly is the first to race from the 2024 Debut Sire with the highest stud fee – Authentic.  His mom never made it to the race track, but she’s had three foals that won during their 2YO campaign (from five of racing age), including two First-Time Starters, one at KEE in April (89 EBSF) and one at the Fair Grounds in December (80 EBSF).  The other won in their third start at Laura in July.  $140K was the winning bid for today’s runner last year as a yearling (63/92).  This will be the first 2YO MSW runner that Val Brinkerhoff has saddled in the spring at Churchill (at least over the past five years). 

#8 – La Fantastica (7/2) – Asmussen will tighten the girth on this Volatile filly who was thrown by an unraced mare by Pioneerof the Nile.  She is the proud mama to Speed Boat Beach who has won $498K, winning four of seven starts, including a G1 score and also a victory first out in his two-year-old season in September at DelMar when he posted an amazing 109 Equibase Speed Fig.  Today’s combatant demanded $140K as a yearling last year (24/99) and she’s also put in three morning workouts, all at Keeneland.  Her stand-out effort was on 4/15/24 when she went a ½ mile in 47.8 seconds, earning a solid bullet (1/19).  Steve looks to his son Keith to ride her.

#12 – Preciseness (3/1) – The Morning Line favorite (for those in the main field) is a Repole-owned filly trained by Todd Pletcher.  Mike went to $325K to pluck this gal – by Into Mischief – out of the Keeneland September Yearling sale last fall (52/69).  Smart Strike is this gal’s broodmare sire (interestingly, this is the same cross that produced the 2024 Wood Memorial champ and KY Derby entrant, Resilience).  Mom never raced, but she’s thrown seven others of racing age with one winning as a two-year-old in a MSW race at Saratoga in August (72 EBSF).  Todd started her workout regime down at Palm Meadow downs in late March and sent her out for four morning drills down there.  She then shipped up to Kentucky where she’s had one, 4f morning effort here under the Twin Spires.  Todd’s main man, Irad, will be in the saddle.  

Pick – #8 La Fantastica – There certainly is a lot to choose from in this one, but I can’t get past the fact that her half-brother is Speed Boat Beach.  I also like the workouts that she’s shown, however, I would prefer if she had a bit more bottom under her and also if she had been out to test the Churchill soil in the morning, but Asmussen certainly knows what he’s doing.  One other tidbit – the cross between Volatile’s sire, Violence, and Pioneerof the Nile mares produced one 2YO MSW winner in races with a purse of $30,000+ from only one horse (two starts).  

Enjoy this one – it should be a dandy, but also remember that Race #9 today at CD is the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes for Two-Year-Olds with a number of entrants that are fresh from the Keeneland 2YO MSW Winner’s Circle.  And, of course, best of luck in the Derby on Saturday!  Thank you to all of you who have joined my Edgie Army.  Take care – be safe and well.

Contributing Authors

The 2YO Edge Man, Past The Wire

The 2YO EdgeMan

The 2YO EdgeMan started following horse racing when his family moved to Louisville, KY when he was 9 years old.  The story goes that he...

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