Dubyuhnell holds off Arctic Arrogance to win a muddy edition of the G2 Remsen (NYRA/Coglianese)
By Ross Blacker
The road to the first Saturday in May continues this weekend as three Derby prep races will take place. The one I will focus on is the 20th running of the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes going 8.5 furlongs on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs. The winner will claim their share of the $250K purse as well as 20 points applied to the all-important Derby Leaderboard. It is safe to say that some of these horses will reappear in a few weeks in Tampa to run in the Tampa Bay Derby.
A full field of 12 will take to the track as the Sam F. Davis goes as Race 10 on the Oldsmar Oval’s Festival Preview Day. The main attraction figures to be the return of Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies victor and Eclipse recipient Wonder Wheel who will test her luck in the Suncoast Stakes.
For now, let’s review the 12 entrants in the Sam F. Davis and see if we can’t come away with some sound and profitable betting advice.
1- Worthington | Morales/Maker | ML 20/1
Obviously need to respect the connections of this one who hasn’t been off the board in any of his four starts. However, all of those tries have come over the grass the most recent being a third-place run in the Dania Beach listed stake at Gulfstream. Distance does not seem to be an issue but the surface change and the fact the Luis Saez, who has been aboard for the last two opts to ride Litigate for Todd Pletcher, a horse he has never been on in the afternoons, are causes for concerns.
The 15 previous times the Maker barn has made this move, going from turf to dirt in graded stakes action, horses are 0-for-15 with a pair of third-place finishes. This ownership group is not a prominent Maker client and I can easily see them urging the trainer to take a shot at this race to see what they have on dirt and possibly make a run for the Roses.
His sire, Classic Empire, strikes at 18% with three-year-olds and 21% at dirt routes. Obviously, the breeding screams distance and dirt but Mike Maker has been doing this a long time and there’s something he saw in this one to stay on the turf.
Breaking from the 1 hole with one of Tampa’s most capable riders in Pablo Morales, this guy has early speed and should be a prominent part of the race in the early stages. It’s just a matter of how well he takes to the surface, the track, and the class. Wait and see approach with this one.
2- Prairie Hawk | Camacho/Joseph | ML 6/1
Have to figure Saffie could’ve gone to the Holy Bull with this one but given his success at Tampa this seems like a sensible spot. Another one that prefers to run freely early on, this son of Curlin saw a 10-point Beyer increase between the maiden score and the allowance win. This is definitely the next, logical step and this horse definitely fits.
The February 6th move at Gulfstream is encouraging as he went four furlongs in 46 and 2, second-best of 31 that morning. Trainer Joseph is 0-for-6 with one third-place finish at Tampa with four of those off-the-board finishes coming in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Nothing wrong with seeing if this horse belongs in this kind of company. The race didn’t come up overly strong in my estimation and this one definitely fits. Will be using.
3- Classic Legacy | Alvarado/Mott | ML 12/1
From the connections that brought us Art Collector, the recent winner of the Pegasus, Mott takes the drive north from his Payson Park base for longtime client Bruce Lunsford with this son of Into Mischief. This guy will definitely need to improve as it took him three times to break his maiden, recently graduating in a maiden special 82K affair at Aqueduct in early December.
Mott, who is 16% in Oldsmar the last five years and 15% in graded stakes over the same time period, definitely skipped last weekend’s action in Hallandale Beach figuring this would be an easier spot. Unfortunately for him, many people had the same idea as a full field awaits. This will be the horse’s first time going long and his maiden breaker was over a sloppy racetrack where he was the overwhelming favorite in a field of five.
While I respect Mott and are encouraged that Junior Alvarado comes up, I just don’t see this one figuring overly prominently in the proceedings.
4- Laver | Morelos/Arnold | ML 15/1
Started his career on the turf, with route starts at both Ellis and Kentucky Downs for trainer Rusty Arnold. Atter finishing second going today’s distance at Keeneland, graduated as the favorite at Churchill, stalking the pace and getting the job done. Has to be one of the few horses that ran at four of the five Kentucky tracks last year.
Had a wide trip and never really factored in the outcome of the Mucho Macho Man last out at Gulfstream on New Year’s Day. That race hasn’t come back super strong as there was one next-out winner in the group but the other four horses that have run back have all failed to hit the board.
Jose Morelos comes up to ride Willy Boi in the Pelican and picks up this mount. Somewhat of a strange happening as he only teamed up with Arnold five times (zero wins) and all those mounts came last year. Another horse that could be involved early and could offer some value. Would have to make a jump on the Beyer scale to contend for the win here so I will take a pass.
5- Groveland | Centeno/Harty | ML 12/1
Never off the board in four starts, winning once in the process, this son of Street Sense, a former Tampa Bay Derby winner (among other accomplishments), has shown steady improvement. I like to see the move up in Beyers race after race and figure this one, given his familiarity with the track, can contend.
Danny Centeno knows this horse and knows this track and I have confidence he can work out a trip. None of these horses have faced a field this big but this guy only ran against four last time out although he has run in a 10-horse and 8-horse field previously. Another horse that is stepping up the ladder, choosing to skip the Pasco and run against allowance company. Lot to like here as this one is based at Tampa, under capable hands and has a running style that may lend itself to being near the scene of a pace meltdown and making noise in the end. Considering heavily.
6- Classic Car Wash | Jaramillo/Casse | ML 20/1
Comes in off a state-bred allowance win going a mile and 70 yards on the Gulfstream tapeta last out. Love that his jockey Jaramillo makes the jaunt north. Interesting that this guy won his last two races in extremely different fashions, coming from behind to break his maiden and then when the distance got longer was able to take the lead, set sensible fractions and never look back.
Casse and Barber no stranger to the Road to the Derby and this colt is one of manty in their holster. Again, this time of year a lot of these connections are asking questions and seeing if their horses can answer: can they get the distance, can they handle a step up in class, is dirt the right surface? This seems to be another one kind of search a little. Works since the last effort have been steady.
Casse is 3-for-21 in grades stakes at Tampa the past five years but did manage to find the winner’s circle in 2021 with Helium in the Tampa Bay Derby. In such a big field, you need to take stands and this is one I just don’t feel, despite the connections, is good enough to win.
7- Dubyuhnell | Jose Ortiz/Gargan | ML 9/5
While he has been in the game a long time, Danny Gargan doesn’t necessarily have a half dozen (or more) Derby contenders in his barn every year. That’s a good sign to me as he’s devoting lots of his attention to this son of Good Magic who is coming off a victory in the Remsen in early December.
The 90 Beyer was eye-popping and is the best last out by some 10 points but here are the questions I have about this guy: his last two wins have come on the sloppy going, is that his preferred surface? The layoff is not usually an overly profitable (8%) angle for Gargan, is that a concern? Finally, I understand Gargan might’ve worked him slow the last time (11 out of 11 workers on February 3) but the works since the Remsen have not been spectacular, is that a cause for concern?
Obviously, this horse is good enough to win but at the low price he is certainly sure to be, I need to decide on vertical and horizontal wagers how much I trust a horse coming off two wet track wins and a two-month layoff. Like many in this field, I’ve got to figure the connections preferred this spot over the Holy Bull. Also, anytime Jose Ortiz is in the saddle, you know you’re in good hands.
This is the type of horse that I will wait and see on the toteboard what happens and adjust accordingly. It’s not as much if we think he can win (because I do) it’s just how great is the chance and is the risk worth the minimal reward given the short price?
8- Notah | Gallardo/Terranova | ML 30/1
John Terranova and his wife Tonja, who spends a ton of time at their Tampa base, are two horse people that I have a tremendous amount of respect for and always take a second look at whenever they appear in the past performances. This guy is owned by Gatsas Stables, among others, a loyal and longtime client of the Terranovas.
Have to wonder what happened after the second-place maiden effort at Monmouth last June. He was on the worktab twice in July before taking a break. He then reappeared in November and worked steadily up to his maiden score at Tampa on Jan 14. Now, this guy likes to be involved and has never gone this far so it’ll be interesting to see how much staying power he has, if his jockey Antonio Gallardo, who is known as a patient rider gets caught up in the early pace equation.
His sire Flatter is 15% with 3-year-olds and 16% with 3-year-olds going long and Terranova is an impressive 21% on the stretch-out. The works have been solid and I really like the five-furlong move last Sunday in advance of this one. Call it a hunch and again this guy is being asked to do something he has never done before against stiffer competition; I am willing to take a chance at a price here and hope the horse progresses and meets the challenge.
9- Champions Dream | Gaffalione/Casse | ML 9/2
The second of two for Casse, this guy finished second as the beaten favorite when last seen in the Pasco. This son of Justify makes his second start for Casse after coming from the Gargan barn. Wasn’t a super huge day in Hallandale Beach the last time this one ran but Gaffalione and his agent Matt Muzikar elected to stay down south.
Now Casse’s main man arrives for the mount and this one is sure to take money. In watching the replay on the Pasco, this one got a horrible break but has absolutely no excuses and from the top of the stretch to the wire had multiple chances to pass the winner. Samy Camacho who rode that day elected to dive down to the rail, which isn’t always an ideal spot at Tampa, at the quarter pole and just was unable to nab the winner.
While that race was somewhat concerning since the horse just couldn’t get by, I’m not overly concerned since he has been under great care in Gargan and Casse and could’ve just been green in the race. I am willing to forgive that effort. Class is not an issue since this is the third graded stake this colt has been in. Hard to side against Gaffalione and Casse who win at 16% and hit the board at 37% in graded stakes. I will definitely use.
10- Dreaming of Kona | Spieth/Spieth | ML 12/1
Somewhat of a feel-good story as the husband/wife squad of Scott (jockey) and Aldana Spieth (trainer, co-owner) team up. This one ran big in the Mucho Macho Man, finishing second at 19/1. Beyer numbers in all three-lifetime starts have been the same (72 each time). The problem I have with this one is that he is speed in a race full of speed and given the wide post and first turn arriving pretty early in the race, it could present challenges.
Aldana Spieth has over 1,300 career starts and this is just the second graded-stakes start of her career, the other coming in the 2018 Tampa Bay Derby, an eighth-place finish. In fact, this horse who has earned $113K is the highest-earning horse and only $100K-plus horse she’s ever trained. The workout on Jan. 18 was the best of 43 but that’s not what concerns me about this horse, what worries me is his stamina and staying power. Pass.
11- Litigate | Luis Saez/Pletcher | ML 5/1
The lightly-raced, well-bred Todd Pletcher horse arrives on the heels of a pair of bullet works at Palm Beach Downs. This son of Blame broke his maiden at first asking going 6.5 furlongs at Aqueduct and then, despite a four-point Beyer improvement from 76 to 80, finished second in an optional claimer at Gulfstream in early January.
The horse that beat him that day, Cyclone Mischief, came back to run 7th in the Holy Bull while the last-place finisher in that affair Talk of the Nation came back to Tampa and won routing on the turf. In the last race moved in company with Cyclone Mischief around the final turn and then just simply wasn’t able to keep up.
At this point, this horse can be anything. They seem like they’re serious about giving the Derby Trail a go as this guy cost $370K.
Like that Saez shows up here and like this guy’s versatile running style, he does not need to have the lead and has shown the ability to stalk. Now as a handicapper, have to weigh how he faded in the stretch last out against a horse that performed poorly in his next start against the two fast workouts and the stellar connections. I’ll go with the latter and put this one on top and hope I can get somewhere is the neighborhood of his 5/1 morning line which I foresee plummeting.
12- Zydeceaux | Marin/Minguet | ML 20/1
Ramon Minguet is not a trainer whose name is at the tip of many handicappers’ tongues. In fact, Saturday’s Sam F. Davis will make his first graded stakes start with a horse who is his top-career earner. Distance is a key question here as he has never been beyond 7 furlongs and his sire the Florida-bred Cajun Breeze was known more as a sprinter as his progeny have won just 3 of 43 starts going long on the dirt.
This could very well be a case of the connections having a talented horse in the barn and taking a shot. I noticed that they are not Triple Crown nominated so this is purely an experiment. From that wide post, obviously, the plan is going to be for jockey Samuel Marin to go as fast as he can for as long as he can. There are just too many things working against this guy and the horse is a total toss for me.
Race Shape
Exactly half of the field have Timeform US Early Pace numbers of 100 or greater so it’s safe to say the pace will be hot up front. Of those front runners, I think that the 2 Prairie Hawk and the 7 Dubyuhnell have the most staying power. Another horse I really like, the 8 Notah is also a stalker type.
In past runnings of these Derby Preps at Tampa, usually front runners or stalkers are dangerous and there are very few deep closers that prevail. I expect at least 1 and possibly two of the horses that are part of the early picture and on the tip of announcer Jason Beem’s tongue will be around when all is said and done.
How to Play the Race
In multi-race wagers there are six horses that I would recommend using: Prairie Hawk, Groveland, Dubyuhnell, Notah, Litigate and Champions Dream. Narrowing that down, if I were to go with a strictly “A,B,C” ticket, I’d lean heavily on Prairie Hawk, Litigate and Champions Dream.
The main horse I’d take a stand against is Danny Gargan’s horse Dubyunhell just because of the short price (which could very well get shorter) and fact that his best performance by far, one that on paper makes him a standout was run on a sloppy track.
