2017 Belmont Festival Analysis by Jimmy W

June 9, 2017

By Jimmy V for June 9th, 2017 by Jimmy W

Race#1

#8 Bobby On Fleak – Take the free peg , pray for 2/5 lol ….returns to track where he was unveiled, made it a dominant maiden breaker ; since then faced a tough one on an off track, won easy vs similar to better and had a throw out troubled trip in a Grade 3 . If all’s right with this one he doesn’t lose to these .

#2 Manipulated – Javy sees fit ; to get there with this one you do need to forgive his last race at odds on down at Monmouth Park , I don’t know but take that one out and to me is next best laying close .

#1 Toohottoevenspeak – this gelding looks at tad slower on paper, but loves Belmont and distance and these closing types can move up if we get a hot pace here. Could surprise late with fast pace up front and top one faltering .

Race#2

#6 Rock Ave Rd. – Feel in watching this ones last replay that I saw a new horse ; needed his last off freshening and ran really confident from outside post , taking over in the stretch only to falter a tad late to finish 3rd . Don’t see much pace here and this one can sit real close and get it done today as should be fitter.

#7 Spring Folly , #5 Shes Dreamin and #1 Dreamy Margarita all are hard to separate as best of this rest , all will try and close.

Race#3

#5 Monster Bea – Needed last while probably not loving the good turf , this one is back under Casses care after a classy west coat Peter Miller campaign , I see some muddied up form and some classier races. Feel this one is versatile too , top choice.

#2 Zennor – also a versatile type seems to be able to lay close which I think is critical in this field, only having to sit behind #4 Fox Rules and take over.

#1 Turbo Street – Javy back aboard after getting to know him in his last  ; this gelding took some money in his stateside debut in a graded Tampa Bay race and folded, imporved with Javy last time , very dangerous .

#4 Fox Rules worth mentioning as will try to wire these but feel just wont be good enough .

Race#4

#5 Marshall Plan – probably be lower odds then we would like with some firsters in here that have some on paper talent , so could get nailed but of those who ran this one with any progressive move towers over them .

#2 Mr. Classical – case in point dangerous firster, Javy up for Chad Brown , the tote should help us here .

#12 Emancipation – could be any kind for Shug/Phipps with Jose Ortiz up. Like the nice long steady work tab , heavy Payson works, watch tote and beware.

Race#5 THE TREMONT

Not a big fan of 2yr colt races , like to watch but lets give it a shot

#7 Salmanazar – Pletcher/Johnny V was bet solidly in debut as expected when comfortably beating next out impressive winner Copper Bullet. That one might have some talent also so verified win in my book.

#5 Direct Dial – another visually impressive debut win. Asmussen is good with these and Jose Ortiz is up , probably need catch him to cash.

#6 Analyze You Luck and #8 Analyze the Odds both for Pletcher rate chance upgrade by watching board .

Race#6

#2 Rocketry – not as much pace as I would like to see but this one should relish the distance. Jerkens/ J Oritz hit at a little 45% clip .

#6 Im the Captain Now – forgive last vs top choice and few others in here because this one lost tons of ground the whole way ; fits as Saez will be laying close with a pace edge here .

#11 Eradicator – Javy/Pletcher 25% combo (kinda low I guess) this one was 3rd losing the whole thing by a neck at near 17-1 down at Gulf , any improvement makes him formidable.

Race#7

#8 Snap Decision – Has been just ok so far but might hold class edge for Shug/ Johnny V, seems enough pace and will be rolling late.

#1 Daddy’s Home and #3 Bricks and Mortar both for Chad Brown cant separate them Javy, Rosario respectively : both 1-1 maiden breakers.

Race#8 THE TRUE NORTH GRADE 2

Sorry nothing creative for me here ,

#8 Whitmore – since Moquett cut back this one time 2016 derby trail horse he has been unbeatable with 5 in a row, looks like gets plenty of pace to run at , gonna be tough to down ; last race at Pimilico he seemed not to handle turns and still gutted out win vs AP INDIAN, Belmont turns a concern but other than that might run clear late.

#3 Noholdingback Bear – needed his last and was trying hard late , Lynch / Rosario, will have more speed here and fits well over the rest of field

#4 Stallwalkin Dude – local edge , Belmont lover, and honest closer in race with plenty of pace.

#5 Fellowship – have a sneaky feeling maybe not here but this one will pop at long odds from way back .

Race#9  NEW YORK Grade 2

#6 Sea Calisi – Chad Brown/Geroux 31% , a tad worried about the slow pace but this classy mare should wear them down late .

#2 Suffused – Mott/J Ortiz on this hard knocker who I have seen have the ability to make an early move into pace and might need that here.

#8 Dacita – Chad Brown/ Irad 24% clip  , likes Belmont and distance and fires everytime.

#5 Hawksmoor – worth a mention as will be controlling speed but just feel he is a tad below these.

Race#10 Belmont Gold Cup Grade 3

I can’t stress to you guys enough how much I hate these marathon race guessing games

#10 Red Cardinal – seems fit and consistent , might just be getting better , distance not a problem .

#1 Hunter O’Riley – seems cheaper at first glance but has young legs here and might be ready to fire big one , distance least of his problems, gets veteran Mike Smith up in a race that should be a ” Jockeys Race ”

#11 Taghleeb – 0-5 at Belmont negative , but been here done that Maker/ Jose Ortiz know the course too , 1-1 at distance.

#6 Farz – maybe takes them a long way or takes over at right time and slips away , maybe .

Race#11 Bed Of Roses Grade 3

Usually don’t see race like this with full field devout of real speed/pace , so…..

#9 By the Moon – not crazy about either but Maragh/Nevin hit at 27% clip , this mare should sit right off #7 Mia Torri and take over, pace edge here . LOVES BELMONT!

#4 Quezon – statebred loves Belmont and Distance, might get overlooked here and fits for me . Ran against a strong bias last out according to Pick 6King Jonathan Stettin, and he’d know. 

#5 Lightstream – feel this filly is best of the bunch BUT some bad luck in finding fields that there are some pace in , with pace up front rolls over them, not much pace here so IDK, Javy helps but maybe too much to do .

@jonathanstettin @Tracking_Trips I am in awe....9/2!!! It was never even in question! #beyondmembership

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