The 2016 Kentucky Derby is in the books, and it’s time to reflect, and look at the takeaways. We are always learning in this great game of ours, and the first Saturday in May always has things to offer.
First and foremost, Nyquist is not slow. There was plenty of chatter amongst his detractors about him being slow for a Derby favorite let alone winner. He had run 2’s on Thoro-Graph, even as a two-year old, so he was never slow. He also ran considerably faster than both California Chrome, and American Pharoah, the first of which won two thirds of the Triple Crown, the second of which took the whole thing. Albeit the track was fast and honest on Saturday, but two seconds is considerable.
Nyquist should now get the respect he never received going into the 2016 Kentucky Derby as an undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, and two-year old Eclipse Award Champion. He is the only horse other than Street Sense to win The Juvenile and Derby. If winning The Derby didn’t put him in good enough company, that fact surely bolsters an already impressive resume.
Mario Gutierrez is a clutch rider. He rode a flawless Kentucky Derby, just as he rode flawlessly in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness aboard I’ll Have Another. He is a money rider and good under pressure. I found it odd his career did not skyrocket after his first Derby win. Maybe it will now. He has the talent, personality, and demeanor. Let’s see if it all comes together and puts him in the top 10 of riders in the country.
California racing has problems with inconsistent steward rulings, small fields, major tracks closing, big outfits leaving, but their horses have won four of the last five Kentucky derbies. Only one of those horses was trained by Bob Baffert. I note this because California horses took four of the last five with the majority of the most expensive and promising horseflesh around, going to the east coast powerhouse stables of Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown. Bob Baffert would be the only California based trainer who could compete with those two on paper as far as who gets the priciest, most well bred, and potentially classic bound horses. Racing can be streaky, as we’ll get to in a moment, but with four of the last five if nothing else California is “Derby Hot.”
The 70’s gave us three Triple Crown winners. Secretariat in 1973, Seattle Slew in 1977, and Affirmed in 1978. “In reality the 70’s could have easily given us five Triple Crown winners.” If it didn’t rain in 1972 Riva Ridge, Secretariat’s stablemate who disliked the slop might have won that Preakness. In 1979, Spectacular Bid was practically a foregone conclusion to take The Belmont and Triple Crown. A questionable ride from young and inexperienced Ronnie Franklin, and maybe or maybe not more importantly “the safety pin” incident may have cost him his place on that exclusive list of horses who took all three legs. It’s hard to believe after all the close calls in between we waited thirty-seven years for our next Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015. It was so long there was talk of how hard it was in today’s game, and the rules or timing of the races had to be changed to evolve with the sport. We’ll never see another one “they said.” It’s too hard. That was really comical as I remember in the 70’s when they said it was too easy, let’s change the rules or spacing of the races and make it harder. Yes, that’s what they said in the 70’s, quite the contrast from what we heard in the years leading up to American Pharoah teaching the newcomer experts a thing or two about the history of The Sport of Kings. The Triple Crown is special, as it should be, and it takes a special horse, the right trainer, and some breaks to get it, but nothing needs to be changed. Just remember, racing is a streaky game, and there is not exactly a lineup of new challengers for Nyquist. No, I’m not suggesting anything, I don’t handicap any race until it’s drawn, “but our game is streaky, and that’s a fact.”
There has been little question for a long time that Doug O’Neill is an excellent trainer. He has one of the greatest claims in history to his credit in Lava Man. Now he has his second Derby winner in the last five years. The Kentucky Derby is run under the tightest scrutiny, security, and rules the game has to offer in the US. Doug has taken more than his fair share of heat. It’s time to give Doug his due. He runs a team operation and is as quick to bestow credit to his longtime assistant Leandro Mora, his brother Dennis, and the rest of his team as he is to take it himself. He’s open with the media, dodges no questions, and I’ve never seen him not gracious and enthusiastic. Top of the world Team O’Neill.
There is always value to be had on The Kentucky Derby. You don’t need to advance wager, albeit it can be fun, as there will be plenty of value race day. That goes even if you like the favorite and he wins. “There is no value in betting a losing horse.” None, zero. Nyquist as the favorite closed a $453 pick 3 for $1, an $11,447.60 pick 5 for $1, and a $24,152.45 pick 5 for 50 cents. The $2 exacta with the second choice second came back $30.60. The $2 triple was $173.40, and the $1 superfecta was $542.10. This was with the favorite and second choice running 1-2, and Gun Runner, a popular horse 3rd, and Moyhamen 4th, who was one poor effort away from being the race favorite. There is always value in The Derby. Always. You just have to be right. If you loved Nyquist but bet a loser against him because there was no value, well, I don’t know what to tell you. Like that old saying goes, “you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.”
Rules, what rules? Nyquist doesn’t have the dosage index required to win The Kentucky Derby. He also doesn’t have the last prep race speed figure to win The Kentucky Derby. He does however have the trophy and roses that go to the winner. Every year, crop, and race is different, rules are made to be broken.
Maybe I missed it, but I don’t think so as I heard enough talk about it, but it would have been nice of Churchill Downs to let the bettors know (yes we do count) that the pick 6 was a 20 cent play on Derby Day. I’m still not sure if it was a jackpot bet or not, but I do know it paid $903.86 for 20 cents. Now Celestial Kitten would have knocked me out regardless, but $903.86 times five would have been a nice consolation on a relatively small play. Had Beach Patrol won that photo I would have been really pick 4 and pick 5 happy, but pick 6 furious. The 20 cent pick 6 should have been better communicated.
Churchill Downs locked out The Roberts package offered through Dish Network from showing the live track feed. Instead you got some message telling you to watch the NBC Sports Network show. Now granted some people like to watch hats and dresses, and cocktails, and who knows what else. There are some of us however, who are contributing substantially to the pools that actually like to see the horses in the paddock, being saddled, walking in the walking and post parade. That coverage was lacking big time. Churchill Downs owns The Derby and can do what they want, but it would be nice if on that day only they identified with their customers and provided a telecast or at least allowed the live track feed shown on Roberts to accommodate their core customer, the bettor. I had to mute the NBC telecast and watch the track feed on my laptop until the races started. At least this year they showed The Woodford, last year they skipped it entirely. Churchill needs to school NBC as to what we want to see.
If NBC and Churchill were not “on it” enough to get it, someone on social media or Churchill through their website or Twin Spires should have shown the Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge. If not the wagers, then at least the leaderboard after each race. We are looking to bring fans in. Exposure and promotion helps.
TVG and Churchill Downs decided to get into a schoolyard spat right before Derby Day. It was over commercials or something, who knows what. I heard TVG didn’t want to show Twin Spires commercials, or something like that. I don’t know if that’s it or not nor do I care. The result was TVG couldn’t show the Churchill Downs races. Come on, let people watch where they want. Show commercials and let people chose the ADW they prefer. Don’t fight about it Derby week. Fix it and make sure you have your customers taken care of. When TVG or HRTV was pulled from AT & T U Verse, I can’t even remember which channel they pulled, I as a U Verse customer was upset. I contacted both companies and offered to mediate the matter and get it resolved. They both responded to my surprise. They both said they wanted the channel on the service and blamed the other. They assured me they were working diligently on it and declined my mediating services. They did thank me for offering. Newsflash, if you didn’t solve the problem you may need a better mediator. I dropped U Verse, switched to Dish and Roberts and never looked back. Buh-Bye!
To add insult to injury, TVG’s betting platform went down about an hour before the running of The Kentucky Derby. This also affected NJBets who Betfair also owns. They own TVG as well. Contingency plans. That’s what one needs. Instead of working together and having the foresight problems can occur unexpectedly in this computer age, TVG left their customers unable to wager or watch the races. A simple agreement between two or three ADW’s that in the event of one or two going down, the others take the bets and split the revenue. It can be done if you truly care about 1) the game, and 2) your customer. We all get that multi- state jurisdictional argument or excuse. MLB, NFL, Nascar, and so many other sports operate in multi-state jurisdictions. For the 100th time in the past two years, THIS IS ONE OF THE MANY REASONS WHY RACING NEEDS A CENTRAL GOVERNING BODY, ONE SET OF RULES, MANDATORY COOPERATION BETWEEN TRACKS, AND A COMMISSIONER. A board made up of people from all areas of the game, bettors included would be nice. TVG sent out a lot of we are sorry e mails and messages, but did little else to take care of their bettors. Not yet anyway.
Exaggerator has had four shots at Nyquist now. In the 2016 Kentucky Derby he got the pace and honest track he needed but couldn’t get him. He’s all heart tough, he keeps trying.
In past the Wire’s Derby Radar column, and on Elite Racing Network I all but guaranteed a fast pace. A very fast pace. I was in the minority for the most part. I think the draw helped to insure that fast pace I anticipated and got. I went with Exaggerator and he got the set-up, the pace I expected and ran big, just not big enough. As I said he did not bounce off the new top in The Santa Anita Derby, he went forward as I thought he would and wrote. Nyquist was just better. Reading the sheets (Thoro-Graph) or any sheets is an art just like handicapping.
Even with the fast pace, Exaggerator was the only deep closer who made a serious run. Historically people tend to gravitate to horses coming late in The Derby in The Belmont. It rarely works out.
You don’t need to spend $2.2 million to get into the gate on The First Saturday in May. Ask anyone who ran a horse Saturday except Shadwell.
Past the Wire’s Oaks – Derby webinar was a huge success. The feedback was great, the attendance was great, and but for a few tough beats we would of and could have had a big day at the windows. We are professionals though, that’ll change and only means the change is more imminent. We are already working on putting together a Preakness webinar we plan to offer free. Additionally, we are planning a paid Belmont webinar on all the big stakes as comprehensive as our Oaks- Derby one. We will set up an inexpensive early registration to make it affordable for any budget and again offer a world of information. Going back over the years Belmont Day has been one of my most successful, and the first Past The Wire article “ No Apology Necessary” about hitting the Birdstone pick 6 launched the column. You can read it here if you missed it:
https://pastthewire.com/birdstone/
The last Belmont Day pick 6 I hit was with Palice Malice. In the first leg, I had both Stephanie’s Kitten and Better Lucky. Stephanie’s Kitten saved all the ground and beat Better Lucky who looked like a winner but went wide. The margin was a short neck. It was a 100k neck to me, as Stephanie’s Kitten was the favorite, and Better Lucky was the longest shot in the race. I also had the pick 4 singled to Palice Malice for $10. Both tickets were posted on Twitter and we’ll probably post them for remainders and good luck come our Belmont webinar. Let’s do it again.
Uncle Mo looks like a better sire than he was a race horse to me, and he was a pretty good race horse. The mile and a quarter proved no problem for Nyquist.
Nyquist went from no respect to a horse than can surely generate a lot of excitement this Triple Crown season. It’s going to be a great classics ride in 2016. Maybe it just isn’t as wide open as many of us thought. I can’t wait to find out. When you look at the field Nyquist just handled, nobody looks like a horse improving enough to beat him. Destin caught my eye as an improving sort, but other than that nobody really jumps out. There also does not appear to be a host of new challengers waiting in the wings. I’m sure we’ll see some new ones emerge, but I think we are in for another exciting run.
“Stop worrying about value, just worry about being right, the rest will take care of itself.”
High Five
If you love Secretariat or tattoos, then you have to love this week’s HIGH FIVE. This unique tattoo was expertly done at Frank Russo’s Ink Couture in Staten Island. The artist was Tatuaje Chino. It was shared with me by a dear old friend, Roy Stepper, as he knows my love of horse racing and the Past the Wire column. Roy’s brother Marc, as well as his cousins Steven, Eric, and Michael are all childhood friends I’ll never forget. All first class guys.
Amy Nesse for nailing the superfecta in The Derby in her Top Derby 5 Past the Wire column.
My brother David Messir for finishing a game 12th in The Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge. Dan Cronin, aka Keeneland Dan, aka Fat Bald Racing Guy for finishing a game 20th. Two excellent handicappers.
Low Five
TVG, fuggedaboutit, NBS Sports and NBC, really fuggedabouit.
