151st Kentucky Derby, Oaks Offer Intriguing Storylines

May 1, 2025

Sandman (Jenny Doyle/Past The Wire)

By Ben Baugh

Churchill Downs’ biggest weekend offers a series of intriguing storylines for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby on May 3 and the 151st edition of the Kentucky Oaks on May 2. 

Last year’s Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old male, Citizen Bull, drew the unenviable position of the rail, and Hall of Fame conditioner Bob Baffert is seeking his seventh Kentucky Derby victory, with a horse that was broken and trained in Ocala by Eddie Woods. 

The son of Into Mischief was bred by Robert and Lawana Low and is campaigned by the partnership of SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stable LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables. Robert E. Masterton, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan. 

The $675,000 yearling purchase demonstrated his precocity by winning the American Pharoah Stakes presented DK Horse (Gr. 1) at Santa Anita, and then following that victory with his biggest score later in the fall by winning the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (Gr. 1) at Del Mar. 

Citizen Bull (Courtney Snow/Past The Wire)

The bay colt followed the success of his juvenile campaign as a 3-year-old by winning his 2025 debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Gr. 3) at Santa Anita. However, after three consecutive stakes wins, Citizen Bull finished out of the money for the first time in his career with a fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (Gr. 1) on April 5. 

“Citizen Bull is like most really good horses, they’re classy acting and quiet,” said Woods. “We also have the filly that’s favored for the Oaks, Good Cheer (6-5 morning line favorite). She’s a big old quiet thing. That’s why they’re good, they don’t expend energy on worthless stuff. Easy to be around.”

A Florida-bred, who was purchased for $22,000 at the 2023 OBS October Sale by Saffie Joseph Jr., who also trains the horse, will break from post position no. 2, providing Pleasant Acres’ Joe and Helen Barbazon, who bred the horse in partnership with Matalona Thoroughbreds, LLC, with a first in their career. 

“We bred the horse with Matalona, those are our partners,” said Helen Barbazon. “They have some mares out at the farm. They board with us, and there were a couple we thought we’d go partners with. As a baby, we liked the horse, it was our pick of that year. In a partnership, you just don’t know what you want to keep, what you want to run, and typically, what we do in a partnership is sell. We usually don’t like to race because you have one person wanting to do this and another person wanting to do that. Although we really loved the horse as a baby, we thought let’s just put it in the sale, which we do with a lot of them. We put them in the sale, and God bless whoever gets them and gets lucky with them. We did like this particular one. He was always a good-looking foal.”

Neoequos (Coglianese)

Neoeqous is a son of Neolithic, out of the Birdstone broodmare Bold Birdie, and has bankrolled $291,000 in seven starts, only finishing out of the money once. Neoequos worked April 24 at Gulfstream breezing 4 furlongs in 48.43 seconds. 

During his juvenile campaign, Neoequos ran second in two legs of the Florida Stallion Stakes series at Gulfstream Park, in both the Dr. Fager and Affirmed Stakes’ a harbinger of what was to come during his sophomore season, where he started off the year with an allowance victory in January at Gulfstream, followed by two third place efforts in March in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr. 2) and the Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa (Gr. 1). 

“He’s improved as a 2-year-old, he ran into a horse that was much better than him, that won the stallion series,” said Joseph Jr.  “As a 3-year-old, he stepped up his game, he ran well in the Fountain of Youth, behind Sovereignty and Tappan Street, and then he came back and ran well in the Florida Derby. There is a question mark about the distance, we don’t know if he wants to go that far. Number-wise, from the Rag (Ragozin sheets) he keeps getting faster with the distance, it’s hard to go against that. We’ll give it one more try. He does relax pretty well. It kind of works for him because he relaxes in his race. It helps him get a distance even if it’s not his forte.”

Neoeqous is owned by the partnership of C2 Racing Stable LLC, Ian Parsard, Shining Stables LLC, Stefania Farms LLC, Ken Reimer, Paul Braverman and Timothy Pinch. For the Barbazons having a horse they bred making the Derby field is a dream come true. 

“We’ve been to the Breeders’ Cup several times. In 2023, we had the one that was close to the Kentucky Derby,” said Barbazon. “Arthur’s Ride was going to go to the Derby, and then he scratched because he hurt himself. But this will be the first one that we’ve bred to go to make it to the Derby. It seems like every once in a while, we get one on the Derby trail. That’s a blessing. There are people who spend their life trying to do this, and they never get such a thing.”

And much like the Barbazons, the late country singer Toby Keith had always dreamed of having a Kentucky Derby starter, and this year’s his dream will be realized, although posthumously. Render Judgment a bay colt by Blame, will break from the auxiliary starting gate, drawing post position no. 15. 

Render Judgment (Courtney Snow/Past The Wire)

Trainer Ken McPeek, who last year, became only the fourth trainer in history to train both the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks winner in the same year, Mystik Dan in the Derby and Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna in the Oaks, conditions Render Judgment, who has two races over the track at Churchill Downs, having broken his maiden at the Louisville, Ky. racing oval. Render Judgment has a second-place finish in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs this winter during his sophomore campaign. 

Render Judgment is owned by Baccari Racing Stable LLC, Dream Walkin Farms (Toby Keith), MJM Racing, Rocket Ship Racing and Magdalena Racing. 

Render Judgment spent time at McPeek’s Silverleaf Hills Training Center in Summerfield, Fla. 

“He was a nice big horse. He always looked like he was a two-turn horse, easy to be around. He was always a nice colt,” said Dominic Brennan, Silverleaf Hills Training Center, assistant trainer. “He was easy to work with. Everyone who buys into a racehorse, their dream Is the Kentucky Derby.”

Sandman, the gray son of Tapit, out of the Distorted Humor broodmare, Distorted Music, and named after a Metallica song, Enter Sandman, is trained by Hall of Fame conditioner Mark Casse, and is owned by the partnership of D.J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Stable and CJ Stable. 

A winner of the Arkansas Derby (Gr. 1) in his last start, Sandman has earned $1,254,595, a running style that Hall of Fame Yankee closer Mariano Rivera would be proud of. 

He breezed 5 furlongs in 1:02.40 on April 23 at Churchill Downs in preparation for the First Saturday in May. 

Trips in the two Arkansas Derby preps at Oaklawn Park in the Southwest Stakes (Gr. 3) and Rebel Stakes (Gr, 2), didn’t go his way, finishing second and third respectively in the two stakes races. However, things would change markedly for the 2-year-old sales graduate. 

“I think with a little luck, he could’ve actually won the Southwest and the Rebel. He had a terrible start in the Southwest, and how he was able to run as well as he did is just a true testament to not just his ability but his eagerness to please,” said Casse. “Then in the Rebel, he didn’t have a great trip in the Rebel either and that was a struggle. The Arkansas Derby set up for him, it was like Karma, things went his way.”

Sandman was bred by Robert Lothenbach, who passed away in 2023, and was consigned by Tom McCrocklin at the 2024 March OBS 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. 

“I don’t foresee him being the favorite, but he’s certainly one of the contenders,” said McCrocklin. “We’re obviously rooting for him. We sold Sandman last March (2024), at OBS, unfortunately Mr. Lothenbach passed away, and his estate chose to sell his remaining 2-year-olds at auction. There were three or four consignors that had them at OBS, I happened to be one of them, and we were given the instructions that those horses would not breeze, they would only gallop.”

The 2-year-old consignor only galloped Sandman prior to the sale, and there’s been a great deal of conversation about the galloping aspect of the transaction, and the proponents of only galloping 2-year-olds at auction, have tried to make him the poster child, said McCrocklin.

“Let me say this about Sandman, Sandman would’ve brought $1 million as a yearling, he brought $1.2 million galloping, and had we been able to breeze him, I think he would’ve have even brought more money,” said McCrocklin. “The horse did not bring $1.2 million because he galloped and did not breeze. Let me make that perfectly clear. He brought $1.2 million because he’s a very well-bred, very well-conformed and was a high-quality racing prospect at the time.”

 If Sandman had gone to the Saratoga select sale in August, he would’ve brought $1 million, said McCrocklin.

“He was just a very nice horse,” said McCrocklin. “We get no credit for the quality of Sandman. We get no credit for the racing performance of Sandman. We were blessed to have him pass through our hands for a brief time. He’s just a really good horse and he’s proven to be that, and that’s why he’s one of the contenders in the Kentucky Derby.”

The 151st Kentucky Oaks features its own unique storylines. 

Early On (Jenny Doyle/Past The Wire)

Early On is a New York-bred, who will break from post position no. 1, is conditioned by Saffie Joseph, Jr., and is 30-1 on the morning line. 

By the 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, out of the Distorted Humor broodmare Sally O’Brien, the bay filly has bankrolled $162,200. Early On was bred by John Lauriello. 

Owned by C2 Racing, Ken Reimer, Paul Braverman, Timothy Pinch and Bradley Kent, Early On was purchased for $20,000 By Alan Brodsky at the 2023 Saratoga August Yearling Sale. 

Early On breezed 4 furlongs on April 23, working in 48.40 seconds. And although she broke her maiden in her fourth start, her last two efforts have been more than admirable, finishing second on March 15 in the Virginia Oaks, and followed that up with a strong performance in the Gazelle Stakes (Gr. 3) at Aqueduct on April 5. 

“She’s the total opposite (of Neoequos), distance is her best friend,” said Joseph Jr. “She wants to go a mile and an eighth she wants to go a mile and a quarter she’ll probably go a mile and a half. Distance is her best friend, she showed a lot more speed last time, which is a good attribute because you don’t want to be too far back. She has that kind of grinding style, but stamina is her best asset. She keeps getting better and better. She handled her ship to Colonial well, and then she went to Aqueduct on a quick rest. She’s been training at Keeneland, The Alabama is the only race at 10 furlongs for 3-year-olds. That will be a great race for her later in the year. Now, we have to try the Kentucky Oaks, and hopefully, she’ll run the race of her life.”

La Cara (Courtney Snow/Past The Wire)

La Cara drew post position no. 7 and is 6-1 on the morning line. The bay filly by the 2007 Kentucky winner Street Sense, is out of the Bernardini broodmare Cara Caterina. 

Bred and owned by Tracy Farmer, La Cara is conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. 

The filly stamped herself as one to watch with a victory in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes at Keeneland (Gr. 1) on April 7, 2025. La Cara has a stakes win over the track at Churchill Downs, winning the Grade Three Pocahantas Stakes last summer as a juvenile. 

She won her 2025 debut at Tampa Bay Downs in the Suncoast Stakes and followed that effort with a strong second place effort to the Queens M in the Fasig-Tipton Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 1, 2025. 

She turned a bullet work on April 22 at Churchill Downs, breezing four furlongs in 46 seconds, the fastest work at that distance of 33 horses. 

“Knock on wood, I don’t think that we could ask for either horse (Sandman) to be doing any better,” said Casse. “I think La Cara with her breeze yesterday (April 22), was never the intention, but I think people now realize, how serious of a horse she is, her breeze yesterday was pretty impressive, coming off a huge effort in the Ashland. She’s sitting on go. I told everybody yesterday (April 22), La Cara worked so fast, and so well.” 

Take Charge Milady (Jenny Doyle/Past The Wire)

Could Ken McPeek have another Thorpedo Anna, with Take Charge Milady? We’ll find out, with the daughter of Take Charge Indy breaking from post position no. 10. She’s currently being held at 12-1 on the morning line. 

Take Charge Milady is owned by the partnership of James Ball, Magdalena Racing and Kenneth Rhodes. The $60,000 sales purchase has earned $416,469 and is coming off a second-place finish in the Ashland Stakes (Gr. 1). She won the Martha Washington Stakes earlier this winter at Oaklawn Park. 

“She could get a piece of it, she could win it, she could. Kenny’s very high on her, likes her a lot,” said Brennan. “But she was always a nice filly to be around. She was a sweetheart and easy to do stuff with.”

Anna’s Promise (Courtney Snow/Past The Wire)

The chestnut filly, Anna’s Promise, breaks from post position no. 12, and is trained by Carlos David. Claimed for $50,000 from Dale Romans barn, the daughter of Promises Fulfilled, won an allowance race after moving to David’s barn and placed second in the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Park Oaks (Gr. 2) to Five G on March 29.  

“She won decently, she opened up, she gave me that gear to stretch her out after that race, and she’s been doing that ever since,” said David. “I always thought highly of her, ever since we claimed her. She’s got a good physique and she has a nice way to gallop.” 

Anna’s Promise turned in a 5-furlong work at Churchill Downs on April 26, breezing in 1:00.40, and had a 4-furlong work at Keeneland April 19, covering the half mile in 48.60 seconds. 

“She’s run really well,” said David. “After we claimed her, we put her in an allowance race going two turns, we ran out of options. We needed to run her back after claiming her. I decided to go in that allowance race and she ended up winning that. We had a good second behind Five G in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. We came to Kentucky shortly after that race, She’s been training really good. Junior’s (Alvarado) going to be on her for the Kentucky Oaks. We’re excited.”

Contributing Authors

Ben Baugh

Ben Baugh has been writing about Thoroughbred racing for more than 25 years. A past winner of the Raleigh Burroughs Award, his work has appeared...

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