Jimmy W’s Belmont Analysis July 1st, 2017

July 1, 2017

Past The Wire logo

Jonathan Stettin and Past the Wire are proud supporters of The Jockeys’ Guild

Jockeys Guild

For the best workout reports and analysis go to Brunowiththeworks.com

Don’t guess about first time starters, or horses coming off layoffs.

With The Works

Take advantage of Past the Wire’s discount on Formulator. Get the most out of your past performances with customizable features, see what you want to see and need to see, search statistics and improve your game. Use our Promo Code PTWF10 for a 10% discount on any Formulator package, whether you are a new or existing customer. Jonathan Stettin, The Pick 6 King uses Formulator. Learn more here:

DRF FormulatorGet your edge with Thoro-Graph. You need an edge in this game and Thoro-Graph provides one. Know who is fast, who is not fast enough, and learn to recognize patterns that will take you to the winners circle. Jonathan Stettin The Pick 6 King uses Thoro-Graph. Learn more here:

Thoro-GraphFor the BEST TRIP NOTES in the game use TRACKING TRIPS at Past the Wire. You can’t afford not to be a #member.  Receive our Clubhouse Notes, Track Bias Information and of course our Spot Plays  all as a bonus. There is no service like it in the game, and you can raise your game to a whole new level. Become a #member or learn more here:

Tracking Trips

Bet the BetAmerica way. Sign up for your BetAmerica account right here at Past the Wire and receive a $500 Sign Up Bonus. legal, safe, secure wagering on horse racing. Bet the BetAmerica way.

BetAmerica

Selections and analysis for every budget with Keeneland Dan, go to  FatBaldRacing.com

Fat Bald Guy Racing

When betting on the horses, your first pick should be AmWager. AmWager’s high performance features, personal service, and great rewards have earned the loyalty of their players. Play on the BestOnline Wagering Platform and receive a $500 Sign Up Bonus. AmWager has the tools you need to win. Learn more here:

AmWager

Race 1

#3 Champagne Papi – New gelding hasn’t shown much of yet but has had some valid excuses . Terranova 25% off this type of freshening , drop , blinkers all should help . Breeding is favorable, gets pace to close into and in what is a brutal race I think he has the most upside .
#2 Chopin – Another  gelded , this one off a year layoff ran even in his turf debut , now drops , looks fit in the mornings , just needs to be ready .
#8 Long Night – Your overbet post time favorite who beat all of 9 horses in 3 starts  , drops a tad but his last race doesn’t inspire any confidence in me . Will be fowardly placed.

Race 2

#4 Quai Voltaire – Not my favorite move but still gonna take this 0-11 maiden claimer , going “up” to MSW. The why : besides a firster being live I just like him best – with the pace scenario , the cut back , the experience , seems fit and should close well here .
#2 Get Game – Is this the “live ” firster? Well let’s let the tote help us but doesn’t need be much to win this . Steady work tab and Irad/Terranova are at a super high % clip albeit a limited sample size .
#3 Jewel Can Disco – I assume the post time favorite , but away since October . Should be on the lead and try and take them as far as he can go, think comes up short .

Race 3

#7 Jazzy Juder – So I like a state bred maiden claimer off win vs. open company claimers , can’t think that’s a high % play but here is the good : Irad/Rudy , 1-1 on turf , looked very comfy and professional in doing so geared down late . From a pace scenario she should get jump on the closers which for me is key here .
#1 Treatherlikestar – Drops in for a tag here and run vs much better in her 2 turf tries while running respectable , both those tries were on soft turf and today gets first shot at the firm stuff . Johnny V sees fit .
#6 May Flowers – Its ok with me if you want this overbet favorite with Jose Ortiz but not for me . 0-11 on this strip , 1-18 on the turf and you are gonna need to wait and wait for that move . Feel although good enough vs these had her chances .

Race 4

#1 Zobaione – Was razor sharp albeit on his preferred Aqueduct inner before last facing run away winner on an off track here . I expect a return to his best with a perfect stalking trip from the rail .
#4 Wine Not – Exits the same race as top choice finishing a lackluster 5th. Franco back up and this one fits vs these also from slightly off the pace .
#2 Beyond the Green – Fits with these but will try to make last move and hope good enough . 0-5 Belmont and 0-7 distance keep me away .

Race 5

#7 Blue Atlas – I am not a huge lover of Pletcher with maiden turf firsters but this one is bred well , working steady , and Johnny V up . Might just be better than these .
#10 Goodbye Brockley – This runner has some experience with 2 dirt starts tries the lawn 1x . Tough outside drawer but see some sneaky turf breeding .
#1 Quietly Quick – Clement and plenty of turf breed to like : watch the tote if she is bet well then might have to reverse my order of finish .

Race 6

#2 Veil Dance – Should be fitter now second off layoff and think there is enough pace for this one to fire a big one down the lane .
#5 Deltalina – I refuse to believe this one is as bad as his last when she needed the race went to lead and quickly retreated @ 2-1 . 1st time in for tag and will be prominent throughout .
#1 Crazy About Jazz – Don’t like the gaps in her running lines , another layoff here but still fits vs these .
Worth a mention #9 Easy Way Out – Harlans filly for Rudy Rod , has been consistent on the dirt , steps up but if takes to the lawn then beware . Irad opts for other not encouraging though .

Race 7 The Perfect Sting 100k
Mcgaughey vs Chad Brown trio

#9 Conquest Babayaga – A head from being 4-4 on the lawn , gets another test here but Rosario should be moving best late . Mows em down .
#2 On Leave – Might of needed her last and still ran her race on Preakness Day to be second .  Mcgaughey , For Janney with Jose Ortiz up and thus filly looks super tough at the mile distance .
#7 Off Limits (Ire) – Since stateside Chads been patient ,  horse has been kinda unlucky but last win was very encouraging , fits and maybe figured it all out and turned a corner .

Race 8

#3 Wicked Macho – They thought the world of this colt entering into serious race Belmont day but opting still for the Easy Goer which still was a moon shot for a lotta reasons and still took some money that day while fading badly late . Free peg here at low odds wire to wire or prominent as he pleases.
#7 Benevolence – This gelding has been sharp last 2 but will need a hot pace to get up here .
#1a Cerratalto – Has a race vs Bobby on Fleek who has flattered anyone but this one might be set for his bet yet cutting back and
from turf to dirt .

Race 9 The Mother Goose Grade 2

#6 Vexatious – I know a few other in here fired big races in there last graded race but they were on sloppy fall apart races : that being said this filly is the class for me here and while Pletcher is tough to beat here locally , I think this one sits mid pack and explodes late : Desormeaux follows .
#4 Lockdown – Have to admit really surprised me and apparently running big at 36-1 in the Oaks from out of it . I tend to think that race was slop aided but this one fits here back sitting closer .
#7 Moana –  This filly ran an even race in the Black Eyed Susan over a sloppy course while wide on turns . That race was first time facing winner a tall ask , very dangerous from close stalking outside trip .

Race 10

#4 Conquest See Ya – In for a tag here , big drop IMO , seems to have some talent on the lawn and a repeat of most of his 7 turf starts make him and easy winner here .
#7 Theycallhimthekid – Another in for tag , consistent type will get jump on the top choice and other closers .
#1 Zander – Can’t see my top 2 losing but this one been knocking on the door of late and should be fowardly placed here and is another with first run chances .

Follow Jimmy W on Twitter @matt918476

Follow on Twitter @pastthewire

Follow on Twitter @jonathanstettin The Pick 6 King

Like us on Facebook at @Pastthewire.com

Follow us on Instagram @pastthewire

Subscribe to our You Tube Channel Past the Wire

Become a member of Tracking Trips at pastthewire.com

Another winner for @AmWager customers from @jonathanstettin.If you're not currently playing with @AmWager. Why not??

Iam Meyers @ihmeyers View testimonials

Facebook



    

Comments

Leave a Comment