Jimmy W’s Belmont Analysis – July 1st, 2017

July 1, 2017

Race 1

#3 Champagne Papi – New gelding hasn’t shown much of yet but has had some valid excuses . Terranova 25% off this type of freshening , drop , blinkers all should help . Breeding is favorable, gets pace to close into and in what is a brutal race I think he has the most upside .
#2 Chopin – Another  gelded , this one off a year layoff ran even in his turf debut , now drops , looks fit in the mornings , just needs to be ready .
#8 Long Night – Your overbet post time favorite who beat all of 9 horses in 3 starts  , drops a tad but his last race doesn’t inspire any confidence in me . Will be fowardly placed.

Race 2

#4 Quai Voltaire – Not my favorite move but still gonna take this 0-11 maiden claimer , going “up” to MSW. The why : besides a firster being live I just like him best – with the pace scenario , the cut back , the experience , seems fit and should close well here .
#2 Get Game – Is this the “live ” firster? Well let’s let the tote help us but doesn’t need be much to win this . Steady work tab and Irad/Terranova are at a super high % clip albeit a limited sample size .
#3 Jewel Can Disco – I assume the post time favorite , but away since October . Should be on the lead and try and take them as far as he can go, think comes up short .

Race 3

#7 Jazzy Juder – So I like a state bred maiden claimer off win vs. open company claimers , can’t think that’s a high % play but here is the good : Irad/Rudy , 1-1 on turf , looked very comfy and professional in doing so geared down late . From a pace scenario she should get jump on the closers which for me is key here .
#1 Treatherlikestar – Drops in for a tag here and run vs much better in her 2 turf tries while running respectable , both those tries were on soft turf and today gets first shot at the firm stuff . Johnny V sees fit .
#6 May Flowers – Its ok with me if you want this overbet favorite with Jose Ortiz but not for me . 0-11 on this strip , 1-18 on the turf and you are gonna need to wait and wait for that move . Feel although good enough vs these had her chances .

Race 4

#1 Zobaione – Was razor sharp albeit on his preferred Aqueduct inner before last facing run away winner on an off track here . I expect a return to his best with a perfect stalking trip from the rail .
#4 Wine Not – Exits the same race as top choice finishing a lackluster 5th. Franco back up and this one fits vs these also from slightly off the pace .
#2 Beyond the Green – Fits with these but will try to make last move and hope good enough . 0-5 Belmont and 0-7 distance keep me away .

Race 5

#7 Blue Atlas – I am not a huge lover of Pletcher with maiden turf firsters but this one is bred well , working steady , and Johnny V up . Might just be better than these .
#10 Goodbye Brockley – This runner has some experience with 2 dirt starts tries the lawn 1x . Tough outside drawer but see some sneaky turf breeding .
#1 Quietly Quick – Clement and plenty of turf breed to like : watch the tote if she is bet well then might have to reverse my order of finish .

Race 6

#2 Veil Dance – Should be fitter now second off layoff and think there is enough pace for this one to fire a big one down the lane .
#5 Deltalina – I refuse to believe this one is as bad as his last when she needed the race went to lead and quickly retreated @ 2-1 . 1st time in for tag and will be prominent throughout .
#1 Crazy About Jazz – Don’t like the gaps in her running lines , another layoff here but still fits vs these .
Worth a mention #9 Easy Way Out – Harlans filly for Rudy Rod , has been consistent on the dirt , steps up but if takes to the lawn then beware . Irad opts for other not encouraging though .

Race 7 The Perfect Sting 100k
Mcgaughey vs Chad Brown trio

#9 Conquest Babayaga – A head from being 4-4 on the lawn , gets another test here but Rosario should be moving best late . Mows em down .
#2 On Leave – Might of needed her last and still ran her race on Preakness Day to be second .  Mcgaughey , For Janney with Jose Ortiz up and thus filly looks super tough at the mile distance .
#7 Off Limits (Ire) – Since stateside Chads been patient ,  horse has been kinda unlucky but last win was very encouraging , fits and maybe figured it all out and turned a corner .

Race 8

#3 Wicked Macho – They thought the world of this colt entering into serious race Belmont day but opting still for the Easy Goer which still was a moon shot for a lotta reasons and still took some money that day while fading badly late . Free peg here at low odds wire to wire or prominent as he pleases.
#7 Benevolence – This gelding has been sharp last 2 but will need a hot pace to get up here .
#1a Cerratalto – Has a race vs Bobby on Fleek who has flattered anyone but this one might be set for his bet yet cutting back and
from turf to dirt .

Race 9 The Mother Goose Grade 2

#6 Vexatious – I know a few other in here fired big races in there last graded race but they were on sloppy fall apart races : that being said this filly is the class for me here and while Pletcher is tough to beat here locally , I think this one sits mid pack and explodes late : Desormeaux follows .
#4 Lockdown – Have to admit really surprised me and apparently running big at 36-1 in the Oaks from out of it . I tend to think that race was slop aided but this one fits here back sitting closer .
#7 Moana –  This filly ran an even race in the Black Eyed Susan over a sloppy course while wide on turns . That race was first time facing winner a tall ask , very dangerous from close stalking outside trip .

Race 10

#4 Conquest See Ya – In for a tag here , big drop IMO , seems to have some talent on the lawn and a repeat of most of his 7 turf starts make him and easy winner here .
#7 Theycallhimthekid – Another in for tag , consistent type will get jump on the top choice and other closers .
#1 Zander – Can’t see my top 2 losing but this one been knocking on the door of late and should be fowardly placed here and is another with first run chances .

@jonathanstettin congrats on a great hit. Very nice job!!!

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