Kendrick Carmouche guided Deterministic to another score, NYRA Photo
Mary Eddy
Amid a sudden afternoon downpour, trainer Miguel Clement celebrated a repeat victory with stable star Deterministic in Saturday’s Grade 1, $750,000 Fourstardave, an inner turf mile for 3-year-olds and up, at Saratoga Race Course.
The Fourstardave awarded the 5-year-old son of Liam’s Map a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile in October at Keeneland.
Campaigned by St. Elias Stable, Vicarage Stable, Ken Langone and C. Steven Duncker, Deterministic brought his superb win streak in tandem with jockey Kendrick Carmouche to six, dating to a win in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy last May at Belmont at the Big A. This year, the dark bay duplicated his 2025 campaign, repeating in the Fort Marcy [this year a Grade 3], the Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival – where he set a new track record for 1 3/16 miles – and now the Fourstardave, improving his overall record to 16-10-3-1.
“He’s a special horse,” Clement said. “When you have a special horse, you just have to worry about their soundness and you have to map out a career and a campaign for them. We’ve been fortunate enough to execute it well because, to be honest, he just makes our lives easier because he’s so special.”
Deterministic found the winner’s circle with his usual prominent tactics, ranging up from post 4-of-6 to track just off the pace set by the fleet-footed Mi Bago, who was alone up front following a slow start from Rhetorical. The Luis Saez-piloted Mi Bago kept one length between him and Deterministic through the opening quarter-mile in 24.20 seconds and the half-mile in 48.54 over the firm footing as heavy rain fell on the Spa.
“Once my horse left there, I glanced to the corner of my eye. I saw [Rhetorical break] a step slow, broke a little bad,” Carmouche said. “Once that happened, I let my horse ease up to [Mi Bago]. I thought he was just to make the pace. I wasn’t worried about him. I thought all the competition was behind me. I just [sat] and wait[ed].”
The top two pulled away from the others down the backstretch and Deterministic kept Mi Bago in his sights into the far turn, lurking right on his flank with Lagynos attempting to advance from a shared third position with Zulu Kingdom, who was pinned down inside waiting for room in the turn.
Mi Bago marked three-quarters in 1:12.19 and clung to a precarious lead with Deterministic waiting for his cue, which came in mid-stretch with a right-handed crop from Carmouche. Zulu Kingdom could not find a path to the inside of Mi Bago and angled out for one last charge, but Deterministic was strong through the final sixteenth, edging clear to post the dominant 1 1/2-length victory in a final time of 1:35.07.
A game Mi Bago held second by three-quarter lengths over Zulu Kingdom, who was a head better than Rhetorical. Lagynos and Capitol Hill completed the order of finish. Classic Q was scratched and will reportedly target the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs on August 29.
A claim of foul lodged by Lagynos’ jockey Jose Ortiz against Flavien Prat aboard Zulu Kingdom in the stretch led to no change in the order of finish. Prat also claimed foul against Saez aboard Mi Bago, which was also dismissed.
Clement said the sudden pre-race burst of rain was cause for some concern, but Deterministic, whose first win in the Manhattan came over good footing, showed his class once again.
“I was a little worried about the ground. It was a lot softer than I thought it was going to be initially, however he’s top class,” Clement said. “He can run a mile to a mile and a quarter; in the bog or firm; speed-favoring or playing towards closers. He’s just special because he overcomes these barriers consistently and overcomes these variables and everything and delivers time and time again. That’s why, without a doubt, he’s the leader of the division for the past two years.”
A trip north of the border may be next for Deterministic as Clement mulls the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile on September 12.
“We’ll have a long discussion with the connections after this, but I have my eye on Canada,” Clement said.
Deterministic is the first horse Carmouche has piloted to multiple Grade 1 wins, and Carmouche holds the special dark bay in the highest regards.
“What an amazing horse. He made my career,” Carmouche said. “The best horse I ever rode in my life. [I] hope I get many more, but I will be very pleased with just having this one the rest of my career. Miguel and his owners, his barn, his gallop hands, his grooms, hotwalkers – they deserve all the credit.”
Saez, aboard the dual Hall of Famer Mark Casse-trained Mi Bago, said the New York-bred put forth his best effort.
“He broke pretty sharp. We were in a great spot,” Saez said. “We were controlling the race the whole way, but the winner was right there. We couldn’t really get away from him. Pace was beautiful, it was good fractions. I thought for a second we were going to win the race, but you know that Deterministic is a pretty good horse.”
Bred in Kentucky by Hinkle Farms, Deterministic also set what was, at the time, a track record at Aqueduct Racetrack in last year’s Grade 2 Fort Marcy at Belmont at the Big A. A graded stakes-winner on turf and dirt, the $625,000 purchase at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale won the Grade 3 Gotham as a sophomore before finding his best stride on turf in the latter half of his sophomore campaign. He banked $412,500 in victory while returning $5.22 on a $2 win ticket as the 8-5 mutuel favorite.
Live racing resumes Sunday at Saratoga with an 11-race card, featuring the Grade 2, $300,000 Troy in Race 8. First post is 1:10 p.m. Eastern.
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