I Say No…..
Where is the winner?
A short video intro to our article
While I am generally not a fan of advance wagers, it is never too early to start looking at the Kentucky Derby. Both fans and bettors alike enjoy following the progress of the three-year olds and whether you advance wager or not, it just feels good to be on the winner early. My main gripe with advance wagering is that the odds are not high enough. The Derby is a tough race to win, and a tough race to handicap even when you actually know who is in the starting gate and all the other intangibles needed to make an informed decision. There is always value to be had one way or another in the derby, so for me to make an advance wager I’m looking for a minimum of 50-1 as a starting point on anyone. Bragging rights and the satisfaction of knowing early is another matter altogether.
The next advance Kentucky Derby pool is January 22nd, 2021. Below is how the leaderboard sits today. Life is Good won the Sham and made his way onto the board after his scintillating debut, but seems to have lost some luster to handicappers and fans. The Sham win was not quite as eye catching as the debut. Essential Quality, who sits at number one on the board, is being wisely and patiently handled by Brad Cox. The Derby is not until May, (we hope) and there is no point cranking him up now. He also has that whole Breeders’ Cup Juvenile jinx thing to worry about.
Interestingly enough, four horses on my early Kentucky Derby Radar are not even on the points leaderboard as of yet. two are ad those would be Essential Quality and Life is Good. Fire at Will, Speaker’s Corner, Caddo River and Mandaloun are nowhere to be found on the board as of now. Hopefully that changes going forward. I’ll either look very smart or very silly come the first Saturday in May if things stay on schedule. You just never know do you?
Of the ones on my early Kentucky Derby radar only Mandaloun disappointed a bit in his second start. Not enough to knock him off my radar, but he did temper my enthusiasm. He had to work harder than I expected for his second win, but he did gut it out and still has a lot of room and time to improve. I still think he will.
While many soured on Life is Good off his Sham win, I didn’t. I guess they expected another monster performance. Again I didn’t. He showed the goods in his debut and Bob Baffert knows how to bring them along and get them to peak for the big dance. Nobody does it better and I think he got just what he wanted from Life is Good.
And don’t forget there is always “the other Baffert horse” yet to emerge.
My early Kentucky Derby radar horses are discussed here.
Kentucky Derby Leaderboard January 13th, 2021:
Essential Quality #1 LEADERBOARD RANK 30 TOTAL POINTS $1,280,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Keepmeinmind #2 LEADERBOARD RANK 18 TOTAL POINTS $379,040 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Jackie’s Warrior #3 LEADERBOARD RANK 12 TOTAL POINTS $457,500 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Spielberg #4 LEADERBOARD RANK 12 TOTAL POINTS $206,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Get Her Number #5 LEADERBOARD RANK 10 TOTAL POINTS $186,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
There you have your top five. Our consensus, despite the respect we have for number one Essential Quality, is that the winner is not currently in the top five. The odds are someone lower down on the list, or possibly not yet even on it can emerge. With four of my early radar horses on the list I have to say nay to he winner being in the top five as of now.
Sittin On Go #6 LEADERBOARD RANK 10 TOTAL POINTS $139,800 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Brooklyn Strong #7 LEADERBOARD RANK 10 TOTAL POINTS $82,500 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Capo Kane #8 LEADERBOARD RANK 10 TOTAL POINTS $82,500 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Life Is Good #9 LEADERBOARD RANK 10 TOTAL POINTS $60,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Hot Rod Charlie #10 LEADERBOARD RANK 8 TOTAL POINTS $340,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Midnight Bourbon #11 LEADERBOARD RANK 6 TOTAL POINTS $68,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Cowan #12 LEADERBOARD RANK 4 TOTAL POINTS $290,477 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Rombauer #13 LEADERBOARD RANK 4 TOTAL POINTS $120,500 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Reinvestment Risk #14 LEADERBOARD RANK 4 TOTAL POINTS $120,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Super Stock #15 LEADERBOARD RANK 4 TOTAL POINTS $59,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Ten for Ten #16 LEADERBOARD RANK 4 TOTAL POINTS $50,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
The Great One #17 LEADERBOARD RANK 4 TOTAL POINTS $40,500 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Smiley Sobotka #18 LEADERBOARD RANK 4 TOTAL POINTS $38,400 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Eagle Orb #19 LEADERBOARD RANK 4 TOTAL POINTS $30,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Medina Spirit #20 LEADERBOARD RANK 4 TOTAL POINTS $20,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Arabian Prince #21 LEADERBOARD RANK 2 TOTAL POINTS $24,063 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Petruchio #22 LEADERBOARD RANK 2 TOTAL POINTS $24,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Waspirant #23 LEADERBOARD RANK 2 TOTAL POINTS $24,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Hold the Salsa #24 LEADERBOARD RANK 2 TOTAL POINTS $19,125 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Known Agenda #25 LEADERBOARD RANK 2 TOTAL POINTS $18,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Parnelli #26 LEADERBOARD RANK 2 TOTAL POINTS $12,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Swill #27 LEADERBOARD RANK 2 TOTAL POINTS $9,600 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Pickin’ Time #28 LEADERBOARD RANK 1 TOTAL POINTS $157,925 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Red Flag #29 LEADERBOARD RANK 1 TOTAL POINTS $72,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Therideofalifetime #30 LEADERBOARD RANK 1 TOTAL POINTS $39,500 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Upstriker #31 LEADERBOARD RANK 1 TOTAL POINTS $20,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Civil War #32 LEADERBOARD RANK 1 TOTAL POINTS $15,000 NON-RESTRICTED STAKES EARNINGS
Our official 2021 Kentucky Derby Radar second edition will be out soon. We’ll see if it changes from edition 1.
Benoit Photo, Life is Good, Sham Stakes